港股跳水背后的深层原因：美联储降息预期、中国资产泡沫和潜在的美国大选风险
数字货币供应
2024年10月18日 17:08 37
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今日早盘，A股市场遭遇“背刺”，港股和富时A50期指的急剧下跌成为了主要原因。恒生科技指数一度跌超14%，恒生指数和国企指数也全面下挫。分析人士认为，港股跳水的背后主要有以下三个原因：
美联储降息预期走弱：近期，美元指数和美债收益率持续走高，昨天十年期美债收益率突破4%，而今天非美货币全线反弹，特别是日元的大幅上涨，导致亚太市场整体下跌。这表明市场对美联储降息的预期有所下降，对风险资产的信心有所动摇。
中国资产涨幅巨大：无论是港股、富时A50期指，还是外围上市的中国资产ETF，近期都取得了显著收益，A50持仓量更创历史新高。这往往意味着市场波动加大，投资者可能会选择获利了结。
潜在的美国大选风险：今年11月，美国将迎来大选。最新的民调显示，虽然副总统贺锦丽目前在全国范围内领先特朗普，但在战场州的支持率更加接近。如果特朗普最终当选，全球市场可能会迎来一轮大洗牌。
知名策略分析师张忆东认为，当前A股和港股的走势可能是一个更乐观的反转逻辑。他预计A股短期内将迎来大涨，中期将出现大波动和大分化，适合耐心投资者和专业投资者。他强调，当前最重要的任务是解决债务问题，通过促进消费、改变预期、提升经济来降低负债率。
市场波动加大之后，会经历一个收敛的过程，之后可能会继续活跃。投资者需谨慎应对，关注美联储的政策动向，并对潜在的风险做好准备。
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谢谢分享！分析很到位，美联储的动向确实值得关注。不过张忆东的观点也挺有意思，希望A股能迎来大涨，不过也要做好风险准备。
Thanks for the insightful analysis! It's good to know about the potential risks and the reasons behind the market fluctuations. I'll be keeping an eye on the US election and the Fed's policy moves.
感谢分享！看来港股的波动很大，主要原因还是美联储的政策预期和美国大选的不确定性。张忆东的观点也挺有意思，看来市场还需要一段时间才能稳定下来。
感谢分享！港股和富时A50期指下跌的原因分析得挺透彻，尤其是提到了美国大选的影响，感觉今年的投资策略要格外谨慎。不过，张忆东老师的观点也挺有道理，A股短期内可能会有上涨，可以关注一下。
感谢分享，近期市场波动确实很大。美联储政策走向的确需要密切关注。不过，看到张忆东老师对A股后市的判断，感觉短期内还是有机会的，但需要保持谨慎，做好风险管理。
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The connection between US interest rates, profit-taking in Chinese assets, and the upcoming US election is clearly explained. The contrasting view from Zhang Yi-dong adds another layer of interest. Definitely food for thought for investors.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The connection between weakening Fed rate cut expectations and the market downturn is clear. The potential impact of the US election adds another layer of uncertainty. I'll be keeping a close eye on the debt situation in China.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The connection between weakening Fed rate cut expectations and the market downturn is particularly helpful. Will be keeping a close eye on the US election as well.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The points about US interest rate expectations, profit-taking in Chinese assets, and US election uncertainty are all very relevant. It's good to hear a more optimistic outlook from Zhang Yi-dong, though I'll be watching the situation closely.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The connection between US interest rates, profit-taking in Chinese assets, and the upcoming US election is clearly explained. The contrasting view from Zhang Yi-dong adds an interesting dimension. Makes me think twice before making any hasty investment decisions.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The breakdown of the market dip, including the impact of potential US election outcomes, is particularly helpful. I'll be keeping a close eye on the Fed's moves.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The breakdown of factors impacting the market, especially the interplay between US monetary policy and the potential for political uncertainty, is very helpful. I'll be keeping a close eye on the developments.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The points about US interest rates, profit-taking in Chinese assets, and the upcoming US election are all crucial factors to consider. Interesting to hear Zhang Yidong's more optimistic outlook, but I'll definitely be keeping a close eye on the Fed and the election.
Thanks for the insightful analysis! The connection between US interest rates, profit-taking in Chinese assets, and the upcoming US election is clearly explained. The counterpoint from Zhang Yi Dong offers a different perspective, which is helpful.